Draw Hunts

[DBLGBL]

Just curious how many here are playing the lotteries in states like Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and other premium states. If you are, please take a moment to elaborate on state, how many points you currently have and when you realistically expect to draw and the quality of the units you are applying for. I am trying to decide if it makes sense to try and draw a tag in Arizona at my age (53). I know you could get lucky but those are pretty steep odds. Is the money better spent else where for a 360+ class bull.

Thanks
2gbl

[Charina]

I'll be pulling my first UT LE tag this year. But I'm a resident, hunting with archery, and not chasing numbers. So I don't need that many points.

At 53, as a non-resident, I don't think I'd be putting in for UT. If you're after something that big, you are asking for one of the top tier units. I look at San Juan draw results - the pinnacle according to the buzz (I've never set foot on it, so I have no clue). The hunt in the rut had 1581 non res applicants in 2016. Two tags available to NRs. So, one goes to the top point holder (22 points), and one goes at random. If you apply next year, with 0 points, you will have approximately a 1 in 14,000 chance in drawing San Juan late Sep hunt. You have better chances at drawing the late (Nov) hunt there, but there is only one tag given out to a NR, so it is always at random. In 2016, someone applying with 0 points had 1 in 732 chance of drawing that. It's only going to get worse every year, as point creep is a real thing for NR applicants, given the limited number of tags.

I hear Boulder may have some 360+ bulls, although I've only seen one there that could have been in that range. Odds are better there, with about 1 in 3600 for Sep hunt (top points is 21, so forget drawing that way until 90+, if that early), or 1 in 200 for a random chance at the late hunt.

It all depends on how much $ you have to throw away. Can always play the lottery and hope for that slim chance of one of the random tags for a Sep hunt on top tier unit. Must buy a hunting license to apply in UT, although you can get two year's applications in on a 365 day hunting license.

[wawhitey]

I only put in for a couple wa draw hunts. Spring bear, not hard to draw. Drew it last year, awesome hunt. The only other one is moose. I expect ill never draw a moose oil tag in my life. Only at 7 pts this year. And i see the moose population going downhill fast. The wolves are hammering them, hard. I figure if i want to hunt moose here, and have a good hunt, it will have to happen pretty quick, so im contemplating going big on the raffle this year. If i dont do it this year i definitely will next year.

[Wapiti7]

Seems like a no-brainer for you to put in for NM. We don't have PP's, completely random every year. Costs you nothing but a non-refundable application fee of $8 (though you do pay upfront and get a refund if unsuccessful in draw, so you give them 2-3 months use of your cash). Though 360 bulls aren't hanging out on every ridge, there are plenty of units where they exist. NM does limit NR tag allocation to 16% (10% to those using outfitters, 6% DIY) so it's not an easy draw for NR's, but what's $8/year in the grand scheme of elk hunting?

[Indian Summer]

Nope. I hunt bulls every year. I could switch units if I wanted to chase bigger ones. I could hunt wilderness in Wyoming if I wanted to. What I don't want to do is spend a bunch of money and a bunch of years trying to get a license to hunt somewhere I've never been AND will never get to go back to. There are 400 inchers on public land in Montana and Wyoming. I'm good thanks.

If I was going to try to draw a hard to get tag in an awesome area it would be in Idaho where there is no point system.

[Swede]

I just read I.S's response and thought that expresses my feelings quite well. I would like a great bull 400 class would be great, but I just don't want one bad enough. I enjoy hunting and the new adventure with RJ is appealing to me, but I don't need a big 6X6 to be very happy.
Putting a pair of clean socks in the bottom of the soup pot for RJ to find will supply me with enough fun to cover a lot of hard hunts. I will explain that it was a big mistake. I thought that pot was the laundry.
Now, just don't tell him.

[Tigger]

why clean socks?

[Old school]

I.S. - that is exactly what I was torn with as I applied for a bonus point in Arizona yesterday - for me and my boys. Hunt/Fish license and bonus point are $175 and to get into a "premium" unit you are looking at well over 15 years according to probabilities - that's $2,625 spent before you even realistically draw a tag (and could be much higher). I put in anyway and then thought "why did I just do that?" My goal is to apply for 5 years and then get a loyalty point and draw a "lesser" unit and see what happens... Even at 5 years that is still going to cost me $875 just in licensing fees before I get to buy my $665 elk tag.

I figure Arizona would be an occasional "treat" for me. Being in my upper 40's I'm hoping to enjoy a few of those "lesser" Arizona hunts in my lifetime. Not going to hold out 15-20 years for a once in a lifetime Arizona hunt, too many things can change in 15-20 years...

--Mitch

[Charina]

I too am not an inches guy. Opportunity is my motive. But I recognize the OP posted asking who IS applying, and to please elaborate on strategy. I'm not sure what pointing out that pursuit of a trophy is not your goal adds to the discussion. No one here applies for the occasional/oil trophy hunt on top of their annual forays?

DBLGBL, you will probably have better input on draw application strategies from other forums, such as monstermuleys. Here is a thread that I recalled when I saw your post. Pretty sure this is the one anyway, as I haven't reread it. http://www.monstermuleys.info/dcforum/D ... 16594.html

[Old school]

I put in my 2 cents on Arizona and thought I answered the OP's questions.

[Swede]

why clean socks?

Cuz I don't want to take valuable hunting time to care for the sick.

[stringunner]

My dad has max in Wyoming and I am 2 behind max. Once we draw, we likely will not play the points game again unless it's to build 2-3 points to hunt general units every couple years. We can't afford the trip to Wyoming every year or even every other year but every 3rd year, 3 points hopefully will be good enough to keep us in general units. The general units are good enough in Wyoming for us, to not play the game of waiting 10-20 years again to draw a premium unit.

I also have 8 points in Oregon and not sure what unit or when I will use these. I imagine I will likely do the same as I plan to do in Wyoming, dump them on a good unit in the next 5-10 years (not enough years to draw one of the big three) then purchase points to hunt a unit like the Ochocos that can be drawn every 2-3 years.

[ishy]

I've got 15 for Utah, have been anxious to cash in for a few years, but I don't really have a NR tag kind of budget. Not sure this year is in the cards due to PTO; wife had surgery, little brother getting married and wife's best friend is moving to Australia so we have to see her in Vegas before she leaves. For a once in a lifetime tag I want to do it right. I've eyed a couple of the southern units, but may go central to share some points with a buddy that I can never fully repay for all he's done for me.

[saddlesore]

After 21 years,I drew a premium elk unit in NW CO. During that 21 years,I hunted elk every year and killed an elk every year.About 50/50 cows to bulls.
At my age though I don' t build points anymore. You have to be in the 40's or less to play that game.
I now draw a ML cow tag ever year and then I can also by a left over cow or bull tag or an OTC bull tag in a general rifle season. That usually gives me 18 days of actual elk hunting every year, plus I go up there days before the seasons open and stay until the day after the season closes. That pretty much pegs my fun meter for elk hunting every year.

It took me 16 years to draw a moose tag in Colorado. Only drew one Mountain Goat Tag and have drawn two sheep tags. However, I tagged one of each so I can say I hunted them

[Game Planner Maps]

I.S. - that is exactly what I was torn with as I applied for a bonus point in Arizona yesterday - for me and my boys. Hunt/Fish license and bonus point are $175 and to get into a "premium" unit you are looking at well over 15 years according to probabilities - that's $2,625 spent before you even realistically draw a tag (and could be much higher). I put in anyway and then thought "why did I just do that?" My goal is to apply for 5 years and then get a loyalty point and draw a "lesser" unit and see what happens... Even at 5 years that is still going to cost me $875 just in licensing fees before I get to buy my $665 elk tag.

I figure Arizona would be an occasional "treat" for me. Being in my upper 40's I'm hoping to enjoy a few of those "lesser" Arizona hunts in my lifetime. Not going to hold out 15-20 years for a once in a lifetime Arizona hunt, too many things can change in 15-20 years...

--Mitch

Arizona changed its NR draw system. IMO the smart thing to do is apply for hunts every year. There are a lot of good units that NRs can draw well before they hit 15 points. Applying for bonus points just gets you points, applying for a tag gets you a point if you don't draw and a tag if you're lucky. The new NR system benefits the guys just getting into the game in AZ. Those that have or are close to max points have less tags available to them. All the units in AZ are good, the rut can be phenomenal in any unit and big bulls get arrowed every year in "Lesser Units".

[DBLGBL]

Thanks to every one that took the time to respond. Game planner can you explain how this system helps the new guys just getting in?

Thanks in advance
2gbl

[Game Planner Maps]

Thanks to every one that took the time to respond. Game planner can you explain how this system helps the new guys just getting in?

Thanks in advance
2gbl

The AZ draw consists of two phases: the bonus pass and the random pass.
- The NR allotment for tags is up to 10% in a given unit.
- The first phase is the bonus pass. 20% of the tags in a given unit are reserved for the top point holders.
- The second phase is the random pass. the remaining 80% of the tags are drawn here.
- In the past the 10% NR allotment was almost always met in the bonus pass. But now the NR allotment is split; up to 5% in each phase of the draw.

For example: Unit X has 100 tags so 20 of them go in the bonus pass. The max point holders in the Unit X pool have 15 points. So lets say the bonus pass application pool breaks down like this...
15 pt 1st and 2nd choice applicants = 5
14 pt 1st and 2nd choice applicants =12
13 pt 1st and 2nd choice applicants =28
lets assume there are 25 NR applicants in the bonus; in the past it was likely that 10 of them drew tags and the NR allotment was fulfilled. Leaving zero NR tags for NR in the bonus pass.
There are more applicants (45) than tags available (20) and in the past NR would just bank enough points to get into the bonus pass and apply for their tag. They didn't always draw but usually did after their second application.
The other issue was that the NR applications were disproportionate in the bonus pass, because guys just banked points till they could draw their tag. Residents still always drew the lions share (for most units) in the bonus pass and were usually left with all the tags in the random pass.

Now the NR allotment is split; up to 5% in the bonus and 5% in the random. In previous years there were almost never any NR tags left in the random pass for most units. All the top NR point holders drew them in the bonus pass.
So theoretically, a NR could draw any tag because there are up to 5% left for NR applicants in the random pass. In 2016 NR drew all but a handful of the tags allotted to them in the random pass. Before they had less than a 1% chance of drawing without max points in most units.

In 2015 zero NR drew unit 9 early archery tags in the random pass
but
In 2016 I believe five NR drew unit 9 early archery tags in the random pass. There were also 5 NR applicants in the bonus pass that did not draw that probably would have before the change.

This trend is likely to continue. The smart NR applicant applies for a tag.

A good draw strategy is to apply for a high demand hunt ( units 9, 10, 1, 3C, 27) with your first choice and a "lesser unit" with your second choice. There is also one NR tag available in each 23N and 23S and it is awarded in the random pass.
A savvy NR with a little luck could draw a tag every 5-7 years and maybe more often than that! You can have a hell of a hunt, regardless of what unit your in.

The big difference between bulls in AZ and bulls in a lot of other states is the fact that AZ bulls bugle...A LOT! Your likely to see and hear bulls fighting, and have a lot of sleepless nights from all the bulls bugling around your campsite and feeding nest to your tent...its a tough hunt . And a good number of the "Lesser Units" see an early archery success rate above 25% and some over 40%! Its not uncommon to see 5-10 different bulls a day, and were not talking raghorns and spikes.
The point is, you want to hunt here as often as you can. If you and your boys start applying every year, on separate applications, with the strategy outlined above, your going to draw tags a lot more often. Oh, and buy the point guard.