Statistically speaking

[doublejay24]

Hi all, so im new to your site. But ive really been reading posts for last couple years, Learning. So being a Midwesterner, Im in the learning process of Elk hunting (have numerous head mounted whitetails). So I read all these posts and do my research on what units are the best, then I found a website that gives me a lot of analysis on the units. Being so far away I cant really get out to say Colorado early and find my spots and elk so now I use this site to narrow my selections tremendously. I met these guys at a whitetail banquet in Iowa!
Big Game Hunting Analysis --bghanalysis.com
Ive built up 4 preference pts now for muzz and this site helped me find my hunting area for 2014. Statistically for the guys needing the help.
I just thought this new company helps us hunters to far to scout!

[Swede]

Jay it is good to have you here in camp. Let me be the first to welcome you. Let me also warn you to keep a good eye on RJ. I think he is the guy that put ants on Elknuts wood block one afternoon just before Paul seated himself.

[elk-n-walleye]

Jay, welcome and thanks for the link. I too am currently to far to scout new areas except thru GE and just being familiar with those I grew up around. Good luck in 2014.

[mds]

Hi. I'm new to western hunting, so please shut me up if I'm stepping out of line...but does this site basically repackage the information published every year? I have a background in computer programming and have been playing around with those numbers for a few days - of course I only found that after I submitted my hunt codes - and working on that has really helped me learn about the different gmu's as well as the licensing system (which is confusing and daunting to a total n00b like me!)

Anyway, if folks have specific questions about the draw and harvest data for the last few years, I'd love to hear them! If I can, I'll be happy to crunch the numbers in exchange for insight about what questions might matter.

[Indian Summer]

The first numbers I'd be crunching are A: number of resident hunters in each state. B: Number of non resident hunters.

Then I'd crunch the numbers on how far it was to Montana or Wyoming.

Keep in mind you can still get guaranteed elk licenses in Montana. They'll probably hold out all summer.

And if you really can't put a plan together after all that try www.headinwest.net

[Triplebhunters]

Good thread and welcome to the site. One would think that these states would try and make our research a little more user friendly.

The first numbers I'd be crunching are A: number of resident hunters in each state. B: Number of non resident hunters.

Then I'd crunch the numbers on how far it was to Montana or Wyoming.

Keep in mind you can still get guaranteed elk licenses in Montana. They'll probably hold out all summer.

And if you really can't put a plan together after all that try http://www.headinwest.net

OUCH!!! we aren't burning them Colorado hunters are we?

[mds]

Then I'd crunch the numbers on how far it was to Montana or Wyoming.

At last for this year, I chose gmu's within an hour's drive so I can scout my buns off this summer. I'll crunch these numbers, though, and maybe I'll have two elk hunts this year...

[Indian Summer]

OUCH!!! we aren't burning them Colorado hunters are we?

If I had elk country close I would hunt where I could spend the most time. But since I drive 2000+ miles I'm not stopping in the place where the first line of every report goes something like "there were tons of hunters where we were.... can anyone tell me how to hunt an area that gets a lot of pressure" 4 wheelers, high raghorn to bull ratio. Every time I tell someone who has hunted Colorado that they can camp at the truck in MT & WY and have places to themselves they find it impossible to believe. That's all I need to know.

Some of you might have heard me say this before... I know Colorado is the shortest drive for lots of people but the longest drive is the one home with no elk. Yeah... I'm biased, the only places I ever hunted elk are Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, & Washington.

[doublejay24]

Ya Colorado is an opportunity state, we all know this! There are good opportunities if you do your research.
I was spending weeks crunching numbers and now just use this site and make a lot of my own assumptions to find the best opportunity. I will get to the point that I will be hunting a lot more states but right now I have had great success in my Colorado methods.
If I don't see 2 to 6 bulls a day i seem to be doing something wrong, and not much for hunters! I feel im doing ok
I know I will spend around 2000 dollars each trip in gas, tags , etc so I do almost all my planning and research at little to no cost.
I tell you what I have become good friends with the young guys that are developing Big Game Hunting Analysis and heard them talk about future avenues with the site. Im a strong believer and my 10 dollars goes to a great bunch of guys working very hard to please the nonresidents like myself travelling that far.

I know like everyone else that units 1,2,61,76 etc are all great units, but Ive also found great units for few to no preference points and have been assisting other family members and such find there opportunity areas.
Its hilarious to hear some people post on these forums about having 17 preference points and asking where they should go with them. If I had that many, I would be way to invested and by crunching numbers for weeks or using a site like BGH analysis I would know exactly where im killing my big bull.

[zpd307]

jay, its late. and i have had a couple... so i am a little confused. have you been to colorado, or still in the research mode?

[Indian Summer]

When I talk about various places to hunt elk I take into consideration our new elk hunters. Ones that have never hunted elk before or maybe one time with no luck. People who are at square 1 and deciding where to invest in their future. Obviously Colorado has elk... no question about that.

But for people who live there or for those who have some first hand inside info it's one thing. They may know places with less people. But there are more people who find out that after all of their map work etc it was just a crap shoot and they are back to square one after that first hunt or even after 3 rolls of the dice. Man that is depressing.

Lots of my clients are people who have heard the same stories. Lots of my clients are people who have been there once... some several times, and decided to move on. I have heard of unit 61. Otherwise I know zip about that state. But I've also heard many guys giving up on it 61 so what good is that? One of my clients lives in CO and is in search of bigger bulls without a draw. I've also heard it's best to avoid Wal Mart on a weekend and found that to be good advice. All I know is what I hear and one thing I know is I don't hear quite the number of similar stories from some other states.

Then there are the mid-rut muzzleloader hunters.

[Indian Summer]

OK.... statistically speaking: For example in 2011:

Wyoming: 55,258 hunters killed 23,189 elk for a success rate of 42%. Total elk population was 105,868. The stats can be found at http://wgfd.wyo.gov/wtest/Departments/H ... 002547.pdf

Colorado: 211,392 hunters killed 43,480 elk for a success rate of 21%. Total elk population was 264,170. Stats can be found at http://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Huntin ... Survey.pdf

Does Big Game Hunting Analysis give total numbers like that? If they compiled them all in 1 place that would be awesome.

So anyway about 4 times the number of hunters. Half the success rate. It's just my opinion but I think the number of hunters effects each others success. That would also mean that they took away from each other's overall experience.

It's pretty easy to imagine that with 25% of the amount of hunters it sure is easier to find undisturbed hunting.

[doublejay24]

jay, its late. and i have had a couple... so i am a little confused. have you been to colorado, or still in the research mode?

Yes Ive been hunting Colorado for the last 4 years, Idaho once and Montana once

[doublejay24]

OK.... statistically speaking: For example in 2011:

Wyoming: 55,258 hunters killed 23,189 elk for a success rate of 42%. Total elk population was 105,868. The stats can be found at http://wgfd.wyo.gov/wtest/Departments/H ... 002547.pdf

Colorado: 211,392 hunters killed 43,480 elk for a success rate of 21%. Total elk population was 264,170. Stats can be found at http://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Huntin ... Survey.pdf

Does Big Game Hunting Analysis give total numbers like that? If they compiled them all in 1 place that would be awesome.

So anyway about 4 times the number of hunters. Half the success rate. It's just my opinion but I think the number of hunters effects each others success. That would also mean that they took away from each other's overall experience.

It's pretty easy to imagine that with 25% of the amount of hunters it sure is easier to find undisturbed hunting.

Some of there statistics show how many hunters per Unit harvest a bull along side how many pref pts it takes to draw a Either sex, or EM tag for that unit and how many tags were given for that unit for that weapon Etc...
for example Unit 201 ranked second in 2011 with every 1.6 hunters harvesting a bull and it took 21 NR pref pts and 18 Res pref pts to draw that unit, while unit 45 has 573 archery hunters but only every 44th hunter harvested a bull.
And lets say Unit 13 ranks eleventh. every 4.6 archery hunters harvested a bull and you can draw with no pref pts.

A few examples anyway

[Broken arrow]

Finished my rookie year in 2013 with many encounters and meat in the freezer, thanks to so many here. The one thing I did was look at harvest data for several years. I looked at # of hunters % of success and finally the elk #'s themselves. I picked units that had success rates that were fairly consistent followed by number of elk then I looked at the number of hunters and finally I looked at those units to find areas I thought would discourage the average hunter. The unit I picked didn't have the highest success rate but it was within a percent or two for several years. Hunter numbers were lower than other units. I highlighted all trailheads and forest service roads then picked out the one that was the most isolated. Like I said I'm a rookie but feel like this was a huge part to my success. Food for thought

[Olydog09]

Finished my rookie year in 2013 with many encounters and meat in the freezer, thanks to so many here. The one thing I did was look at harvest data for several years. I looked at # of hunters % of success and finally the elk #'s themselves. I picked units that had success rates that were fairly consistent followed by number of elk then I looked at the number of hunters and finally I looked at those units to find areas I thought would discourage the average hunter. The unit I picked didn't have the highest success rate but it was within a percent or two for several years. Hunter numbers were lower than other units. I highlighted all trailheads and forest service roads then picked out the one that was the most isolated. Like I said I'm a rookie but feel like this was a huge part to my success. Food for thought

It is obvious BA you took the time to do your own research and you did it in a very educated manner. Congrats man. The homework you did ahead of time is impressive.

Another thought. One thing I do when I am trying to pick a unit is discard the hunter percentage rates and use the days hunted to elk harvested as a guide instead. In my research anything in the 15-20 days per bull harvested is about as good as it gets for otc hunts and exceptional for draw units as well.

[zpd307]

jay, its late. and i have had a couple... so i am a little confused. have you been to colorado, or still in the research mode?

Yes Ive been hunting Colorado for the last 4 years, Idaho once and Montana once

jay, gotcha, thanks!

[Wyo67]

Wyoming: 55,258 hunters killed 23,189 elk for a success rate of 42%. Total elk population was 105,868. The stats can be found at http://wgfd.wyo.gov/wtest/Departments/H ... 002547.pdf

Colorado: 211,392 hunters killed 43,480 elk for a success rate of 21%. Total elk population was 264,170. Stats can be found at http://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Huntin ... Survey.pdf

IMO you still have to take these numbers with a grain of salt. How do the states come up with these numbers? Do they use a common formula based on the number and results of the surveys they receive? Just asking since the 7+ years I've been a Wyo resident and hunted elk I have yet to receive a survey for that species. None of my hunting camp buddies have received any either and we've had pretty good success that last few years. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but who's to say Wyoming Game & Fish hasn't altered their formula to make Wyoming more attractive to non-resident hunters by showing fewer numbers and a higher success rate?

[Indian Summer]

That's interesting Wyo. I get a survey AND a call every year. It's pretty easy for them to accurately tally the number of hunters by license sales. But I agree surveys and game check stations are debatable. But the numbers are so much different that I think regardless of the conspiracy theory the difference is undebatable.

Really all I need to know is the number of hunters and how many square miles they have to share. That and the countless posts I read that are similar. Also the pattern of hunters looking for new spots or moving from one state to another. It's not easy to find a report from Wyoming that says I just can't find a place to call my own.

[Wyo67]

Indian - Yeah, makes me scratch my head too. I get a survey in the mail every year for antelope, but have never gotten one for elk or deer. Every year except one we hunted on a general tag, so I don't know if that has anything to do with it or not. With that, I'm just wondering how Wyo G&F can accurately determine what general areas are being hunted harder than another?

It's not just hunters looking for new spots either. Last year I took my non-resident dad to a place where we rarely saw another hunter (in a general area), and found an established camp with 8 hunters from out of state. Turns out one of them had deer hunted that particular mountain several years ago and had now returned once their group had enough points. Nice folks, but we moved on to plan/area "B".

[mds]

I highlighted all trailheads and forest service roads then picked out the one that was the most isolated. Like I said I'm a rookie but feel like this was a huge part to my success. Food for thought

Awesome. This is my plan for my first elk hunt this year. Except I picked the gmu based on easy access so I can go scouting on just day trips and spend lots of time in the area this summer. I also found a local otc archery guy who's willing to let me help with camp chores in exchange for letting me hang out and learn from his hunt. I figure spending a few days with someone who knows what they're doing, a few weeks before my own hunt, can't hurt!

[Lefty]

Some comparisons ( statistics) are far from equal
One unit the number of hunt days might be large and the number of elk few, but the trophy bull might be high. Others your chance opening day success might be 50%.

For me quality means fewer hunters, others the chance to put meat on the table, or bulls only.